Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 451 Alaska Flight history →	MSY 07:10	SEA 10:17	20%	4%	1.2%	73%
AS 569 Alaska Flight history →	MSY 17:19	SEA 20:25	30%	10%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	10h 15m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 30m	100%	85%
United Details →	MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392	1h 37m Dulles	IAD 13:10 → SEA 15:55UA 2241	9h 55m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:38 → SEA 16:49DL 481	9h 36m	98%	80%
United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	1h 26m Houston	IAH 08:00 → SEA 10:47UA 2654	7h 32m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:19 → DTW 14:48DL 2790	1h 58m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	9h 23m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	2h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 12:09 → SEA 14:55DL 1045	8h 52m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	9h 28m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991	50m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	6h 35m	74%	62%
American Details →	MSY 19:59 → DFW 21:47AA 2158	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:41 → SEA 00:57 +1AA 1487	6h 58m	75%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON