tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2194 United Flight history → MSY 19:04 SFO 21:45 24% 11% 1.1% 45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:00 → IAD 11:33UA 1392 3h 18m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 11h 38m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 17:35 → IAH 19:02UA 2341 2h 57m Houston IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609 8h 30m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 1h 46m Houston IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 7h 10m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 9h 22m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 05m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 9h 16m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420 1h 13m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 8h 44m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:07 → IAH 13:26UA 2253 2h 04m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 28m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MSY 16:55 → FLL 19:54B6 2722 1h 01m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → SFO 23:51B6 277 8h 56m 64% 39%
AmericanDetails → MSY 17:27 → ORD 20:29AA 2198 51m Chicago ORD 21:20 → SFO 00:02 +1AA 3054 8h 35m 60% 38%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:01 → DFW 19:55AA 2194 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:44 → SFO 22:28AA 2228 6h 27m 64% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON