tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 736 Delta Flight history → MSY 13:30 SLC 16:01 9% 3% 0.6% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:05 → SLC 11:45WN 4027 7h 35m 100% 90%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30WN 2976 1h 45m Austin AUS 09:15 → SLC 11:00WN 403 6h 00m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 7h 50m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498 2h 00m Chicago MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951 7h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 30m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756 7h 44m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:28 → ATL 10:00DL 2522 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 23m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647 9h 00m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991 50m Denver DEN 07:45 → SLC 09:20WN 452 5h 10m 74% 69%
SouthwestDetails → MSY 14:40 → PHX 15:55WN 3017 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → SLC 19:35WN 4867 5h 55m 73% 51%
AmericanDetails → MSY 18:14 → PHX 19:29AA 2191 51m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SLC 23:03AA 4921 · flown by SkyWest 5h 49m 60% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON