Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3020 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3020 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 07:25	STL 09:15	5%	1%	0.9%	96%
WN 3021 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 19:10	STL 21:00	30%	7%	1.3%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30WN 2976	4h 00m Austin	AUS 11:30 → STL 13:35WN 409	7h 35m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:20 → DAL 06:45WN 2964	2h 30m Dallas	DAL 09:15 → STL 11:00WN 1411	5h 40m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 23m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	5h 57m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498	3h 00m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	6h 30m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:10 → DEN 06:55WN 2991	3h 10m Denver	DEN 10:05 → STL 13:20WN 1753	8h 10m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	MSY 09:13 → ATL 11:43DL 3128	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	5h 35m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	MSY 05:30 → HOU 06:45WN 4547	3h 55m Houston	HOU 10:40 → STL 12:45WN 2084	7h 15m	100%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSY 17:20 → DEN 19:25WN 1743	1h 20m Denver	DEN 20:45 → STL 23:55WN 3317	6h 35m	73%	49%
Southwest Details →	MSY 20:35 → HOU 21:50WN 4662	50m Houston	HOU 22:40 → STL 00:45 +1WN 2087	4h 10m	60%	42%
Southwest Details →	MSY 17:45 → TPA 20:20WN 3023	50m Tampa	TPA 21:10 → STL 22:40WN 4964	4h 55m	52%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON