Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3022 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3022 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 06:10	TPA 08:45	4%	2%	16.9%	91%
WN 3023 Southwest Flight history →	MSY 17:45	TPA 20:20	36%	11%	15.3%	49%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MSY 05:40 → MDW 08:00WN 498	1h 15m Chicago	MDW 09:15 → TPA 12:50WN 2907	6h 10m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 19m	100%	71%
United Details →	MSY 06:30 → ORD 09:12UA 2420	2h 07m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	7h 42m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	MSY 06:00 → AUS 07:30WN 2976	1h 10m Austin	AUS 08:40 → TPA 12:05WN 411	5h 05m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	MSY 07:45 → BNA 09:20WN 2981	2h 30m Nashville	BNA 11:50 → TPA 14:40WN 684	5h 55m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	MSY 07:25 → STL 09:15WN 3020	50m St Louis	STL 10:05 → TPA 13:25WN 3986	5h 00m	93%	70%
Delta Details →	MSY 06:20 → ATL 08:57DL 1534	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:46 → TPA 14:13DL 1525	6h 53m	100%	70%
United Details →	MSY 05:15 → IAH 06:34UA 2744	51m Houston	IAH 07:25 → TPA 10:45UA 1353	4h 30m	93%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MSY 18:40 → HOU 19:55WN 1810	1h 00m Houston	HOU 20:55 → TPA 00:10 +1WN 2090	4h 30m	67%	40%
American Details →	MSY 16:17 → CLT 19:26AA 2174	50m Charlotte	CLT 20:16 → TPA 21:59AA 2022	4h 42m	74%	40%
American Details →	MSY 18:57 → MIA 21:59AA 2201	1h 14m Miami	MIA 23:13 → TPA 00:19 +1AA 1714	4h 22m	66%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON