Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, B6 1225 at 10:58, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1225 JetBlue Flight history →	MVY 10:58	BOS 11:45	12%	5%	0.8%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MVY 17:30 → DCA 19:15AA 4572 · flown by Republic	3h 01m Washington	DCA 22:16 → BOS 23:59AA 2932	6h 29m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MVY 11:42 → LGA 12:58DL 5662 · flown by Republic	3h 02m New York	LGA 16:00 → BOS 17:37DL 5819 · flown by Republic	5h 55m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MVY 13:18 → JFK 14:30DL 5859 · flown by Republic	3h 00m New York	JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:16DL 5798 · flown by Republic	5h 58m	99%	77%
American Details →	MVY 10:41 → PHL 12:08AA 4602 · flown by Republic	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 15:20 → BOS 16:47AA 3116	6h 06m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	MVY 15:43 → LGA 16:59DL 5822 · flown by Republic	3h 01m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:39DL 5850 · flown by Republic	5h 56m	96%	71%
American Details →	MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59AA 4574 · flown by Republic	3h 01m Washington	DCA 17:00 → BOS 18:47AA 3207	6h 25m	97%	69%
American Details →	MVY 13:51 → LGA 15:11AA 4570 · flown by Republic	2h 48m New York	LGA 17:59 → BOS 19:28AA 4374 · flown by Republic	5h 37m	95%	66%
JetBlue Details →	MVY 15:09 → DCA 16:47B6 1413	3h 12m Washington	DCA 19:59 → BOS 21:38B6 1854	6h 29m	95%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON