Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4574 at 12:22 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 4574 MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest B6 1413 MVY 15:09 → DCA 16:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4574 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 12:22	DCA 13:59	15%	5%	0.9%	67%
AA 4572 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 17:30	DCA 19:15	19%	7%	1.3%	56%
B6 1413 JetBlue Flight history →	MVY 15:09	DCA 16:47	29%	14%	1.0%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON