Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5859 at 13:18 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5859 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 13:18	JFK 14:30	15%	4%	0.8%	68%
B6 1539 JetBlue Flight history →	MVY 17:26	JFK 18:30	28%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	MVY 10:58 → BOS 11:45B6 1225	59m Boston	BOS 12:44 → JFK 13:59B6 717	3h 01m	88%	67%
American Details →	MVY 12:22 → DCA 13:59AA 4574 · flown by Republic	55m Washington	DCA 14:54 → JFK 16:29AA 4781 · flown by Republic	4h 07m	82%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON