Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5662 at 11:42 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5662 MVY 11:42 → LGA 12:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4528 MVY 19:10 → LGA 20:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5662 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 11:42	LGA 12:58	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
AA 4570 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 13:51	LGA 15:11	16%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 5822 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 15:43	LGA 16:59	20%	7%	0.9%	76%
AA 4528 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MVY 19:10	LGA 20:30	23%	9%	1.1%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON