Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3162 MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2467 MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3162 Delta Flight history →	MYR 06:00	ATL 07:19	6%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 3047 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:42	ATL 13:04	10%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 1093 Delta Flight history →	MYR 20:02	ATL 21:34	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
DL 3182 Delta Flight history →	MYR 13:51	ATL 15:14	12%	4%	1.7%	88%
DL 2467 Delta Flight history →	MYR 16:16	ATL 17:39	13%	4%	0.9%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON