tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 6h 45m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 11:18 → BOS 13:33AA 1611 6h 42m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 07:50 → BWI 09:10WN 3026 1h 30m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → BOS 12:10WN 887 4h 20m 93% 84%
UnitedDetails → MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 19m Dulles IAD 15:30 → BOS 17:24UA 3615 · flown by Republic 6h 50m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 07:25 → MDW 08:30WN 4068 50m Chicago MDW 09:20 → BOS 12:40WN 1405 5h 15m 87% 79%
DeltaDetails → MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → BOS 23:59DL 2269 7h 43m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:06 → CLT 10:25AA 5555 · flown by PSA 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 13:37 → BOS 15:53AA 1573 6h 47m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 3h 30m Charlotte CLT 17:47 → BOS 20:10AA 1422 7h 09m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MYR 20:10 → BWI 21:40WN 3027 50m Baltimore BWI 22:30 → BOS 00:10 +1WN 892 4h 00m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON