tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 07:25, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Cleveland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MYR 07:25 → MDW 08:30WN 4068 3h 45m Chicago MDW 12:15 → CLE 14:25WN 1813 7h 00m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 32m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MYR 10:00 → EWR 11:59UA 1365 2h 16m Newark EWR 14:15 → CLE 16:01UA 3616 · flown by Republic 6h 01m 96% 83%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 07:50 → BWI 09:10WN 3026 2h 00m Baltimore BWI 11:10 → CLE 12:30WN 1031 4h 40m 93% 82%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 1h 39m Charlotte CLT 09:37 → CLE 11:12AA 1677 4h 21m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → CLE 17:13DL 880 5h 31m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 1h 53m Philadelphia PHL 15:01 → CLE 16:41AA 5129 · flown by PSA 5h 22m 96% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 10:35 → BNA 11:10WN 2997 3h 25m Nashville BNA 14:35 → CLE 17:05WN 473 6h 30m 100% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886 55m Charlotte CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260 3h 45m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON