Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3296 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3296 MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2212 MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 06:51	CLT 07:58	10%	3%	1.0%	90%
AA 5555 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MYR 09:06	CLT 10:25	10%	4%	2.2%	94%
AA 2214 American Flight history →	MYR 16:16	CLT 17:32	20%	6%	1.2%	66%
AA 2886 American Flight history →	MYR 20:44	CLT 21:55	22%	6%	1.1%	82%
AA 2212 American Flight history →	MYR 18:10	CLT 19:24	24%	6%	1.2%	60%
AA 5883 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 13:01	CLT 14:17	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON