Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5300 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MYR 11:52	DCA 13:34	14%	7%	2.4%	83%
YX 4764 Republic	MYR 19:39	DCA 21:15	18%	6%	1.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 27m	97%	85%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	6h 08m	99%	83%
American Details →	MYR 06:33 → DFW 08:45AA 4024 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624	7h 26m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	MYR 10:35 → BNA 11:10WN 2997	2h 45m Nashville	BNA 13:55 → DCA 16:45WN 4380	6h 10m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	MYR 07:25 → MDW 08:30WN 4068	2h 45m Chicago	MDW 11:15 → DCA 14:00WN 1294	6h 35m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	3h 47m Detroit	DTW 17:18 → DCA 18:59DL 2030	7h 25m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	5h 48m	99%	75%
United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → DCA 22:54UA 2160	7h 39m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON