Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	10%	4%	1.0%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 56m	99%	85%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DTW 13:01AA 1781	6h 10m	99%	83%
United Details →	MYR 10:00 → EWR 11:59UA 1365	2h 08m Newark	EWR 14:07 → DTW 16:07UA 3437 · flown by Republic	6h 07m	96%	82%
American Details →	MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont	3h 40m Philadelphia	PHL 16:48 → DTW 18:45AA 5167 · flown by PSA	7h 26m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	5h 45m	99%	78%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 17:25 → DTW 19:18AA 1794	6h 17m	100%	77%
American Details →	MYR 09:06 → CLT 10:25AA 5555 · flown by PSA	3h 18m Charlotte	CLT 13:43 → DTW 15:31AA 1770	6h 25m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	6h 22m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	3h 57m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON