Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1365 at 10:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1365 United Flight history →	MYR 10:00	EWR 11:59	8%	4%	1.4%	88%
UA 3714 United flown by Republic Flight history →	MYR 18:50	EWR 20:59	25%	8%	3.1%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	59m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 29m	94%	86%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819	5h 46m	98%	86%
United Details →	MYR 15:15 → ORD 16:49UA 2467	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759	8h 24m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 12m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498	7h 03m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:34DL 1093	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	4h 56m	90%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	6h 13m	93%	65%
Delta Details →	MYR 17:30 → MSP 19:29DL 2327	46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846	6h 26m	81%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON