tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4324 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record MYR 10:34 IAD 12:11 18% 7% 0.0% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → IAD 11:37DL 1444 5h 37m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 11:05 → IAD 12:38AA 5220 · flown by PSA 5h 47m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 5h 04m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 1h 37m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 5h 07m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 3h 53m Charlotte CLT 18:10 → IAD 19:40AA 1450 6h 39m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MYR 10:00 → EWR 11:59UA 1365 3h 09m Newark EWR 15:08 → IAD 16:32UA 1992 6h 32m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → MYR 16:16 → CLT 17:32AA 2214 2h 59m Charlotte CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA 5h 49m 94% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 20:02 → ATL 21:34DL 1093 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 4h 39m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic 51m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 4h 29m 71% 53%
AmericanDetails → MYR 20:44 → CLT 21:55AA 2886 50m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 3h 26m 61% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON