tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2194 at 11:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2194 Delta Flight history → MYR 11:00 LGA 12:47 16% 4% 1.1% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 07:25 → MDW 08:30WN 4068 1h 20m Chicago MDW 09:50 → LGA 12:55WN 4044 5h 30m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 24m 95% 78%
SouthwestDetails → MYR 10:35 → BNA 11:10WN 2997 1h 25m Nashville BNA 12:35 → LGA 15:55WN 4731 5h 20m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 08m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 5h 08m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 6h 36m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → MYR 09:06 → CLT 10:25AA 5555 · flown by PSA 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 13:07 → LGA 15:05AA 2036 5h 59m 97% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON