Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4068 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4068 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 07:25	MDW 08:30	6%	2%	0.9%	93%
WN 4367 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 19:15	MDW 20:20	21%	6%	0.8%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MYR 07:50 → BWI 09:10WN 3026	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	6h 40m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 33m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 59m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	MYR 12:00 → BWI 13:30WN 1695	2h 35m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	6h 10m	100%	77%
Southwest Details →	MYR 14:00 → STL 15:05WN 262	3h 25m St Louis	STL 18:30 → MDW 19:35WN 596	6h 35m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MYR 21:10 → BNA 21:45WN 3025	50m Nashville	BNA 22:35 → MDW 00:10 +1WN 578	4h 00m	69%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON