Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3733 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MYR 12:52	ORD 14:25	15%	4%	2.1%	84%
UA 2467 United Flight history →	MYR 15:15	ORD 16:49	20%	7%	0.9%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908	6h 28m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	96%	84%
United Details →	MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 28m Dulles	IAD 15:39 → ORD 17:02UA 1393	7h 28m	99%	84%
American Details →	MYR 09:06 → CLT 10:25AA 5555 · flown by PSA	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ORD 14:20AA 836	6h 14m	97%	79%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 16:16 → ORD 17:39AA 536	5h 38m	100%	78%
United Details →	MYR 10:00 → EWR 11:59UA 1365	1h 11m Newark	EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053	5h 53m	94%	77%
American Details →	MYR 06:33 → DFW 08:45AA 4024 · flown by Envoy	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → ORD 13:25AA 3330	7h 52m	96%	77%
American Details →	MYR 18:10 → CLT 19:24AA 2212	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014	6h 51m	92%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON