Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 262 at 14:00, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 262 Southwest Flight history →	MYR 14:00	STL 15:05	17%	4%	1.7%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	MYR 07:25 → MDW 08:30WN 4068	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 11:00 → STL 12:10WN 2901	5h 45m	100%	86%
American Details →	MYR 06:51 → CLT 07:58AA 3296	3h 02m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 11:55AA 2717	6h 04m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	MYR 10:35 → BNA 11:10WN 2997	1h 55m Nashville	BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371	4h 45m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	3h 09m Detroit	DTW 16:40 → STL 17:19DL 2822	6h 45m	99%	81%
United Details →	MYR 10:00 → EWR 11:59UA 1365	2h 31m Newark	EWR 14:30 → STL 16:12UA 3556 · flown by Republic	7h 12m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MYR 16:16 → ATL 17:39DL 2467	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → STL 22:15DL 2833	6h 59m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:42 → ATL 13:04DL 3047	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:09 → STL 14:48DL 2700	4h 06m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON