Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 41 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2341 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2341 LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 3423 LGA 22:55 → DFW 01:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2341 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DAL 08:35	4%	1%	0.9%	94%
AA 475 American Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DFW 09:29	5%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 1712 United Flight history →	EWR 06:40	DFW 09:24	6%	3%	0.8%	100%
AA 1597 American Flight history →	LGA 06:30	DFW 09:23	6%	3%	1.3%	89%
AA 2728 American Flight history →	EWR 05:51	DFW 08:40	7%	3%	1.3%	95%
AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 873 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	DFW 09:35	9%	5%	1.0%	78%
UA 454 United Flight history →	EWR 09:06	DFW 11:54	10%	4%	0.8%	85%
WN 2451 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 09:35	DAL 12:15	10%	2%	0.8%	77%
AA 2049 American Flight history →	JFK 11:21	DFW 14:17	11%	4%	0.8%	76%
AA 1987 American Flight history →	LGA 08:35	DFW 11:25	12%	4%	1.3%	81%
AA 3289 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	DFW 10:23	12%	4%	1.3%	77%
AA 1303 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	DFW 10:51	12%	5%	0.9%	85%
DL 856 Delta Flight history →	LGA 09:30	DFW 12:09	12%	4%	0.9%	82%
AA 3068 American Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DFW 12:54	13%	4%	1.2%	80%
AA 1166 American Flight history →	LGA 11:15	DFW 14:11	13%	5%	1.3%	79%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	EWR 13:00	DFW 15:50	14%	7%	0.8%	82%
DL 869 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DFW 15:10	14%	5%	0.9%	75%
WN 4570 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 12:35	DAL 15:10	14%	4%	0.8%	75%
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	16%	5%	0.8%	69%
AA 1441 American Flight history →	EWR 12:21	DFW 15:10	16%	7%	0.9%	60%
AA 1056 American Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DFW 17:05	16%	8%	1.3%	65%
AA 1609 American Flight history →	LGA 13:08	DFW 15:58	17%	7%	1.3%	71%
UA 1590 United Flight history →	EWR 15:30	DFW 18:28	17%	10%	0.8%	71%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 17:25	DFW 20:30	19%	6%	0.9%	60%
DL 846 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:01	20%	9%	0.9%	65%
F9 2471 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 13:35	DFW 16:27	22%	10%	0.9%	74%
AA 1043 American Flight history →	LGA 15:00	DFW 18:05	22%	9%	1.4%	61%
AA 1608 American Flight history →	LGA 16:00	DFW 19:15	23%	9%	1.3%	63%
WN 4401 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:30	DAL 19:35	23%	9%	0.8%	52%
UA 424 United Flight history →	EWR 21:09	DFW 23:59	24%	10%	1.1%	59%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	24%	6%	0.9%	71%
AA 3103 American Flight history →	LGA 17:01	DFW 20:10	26%	10%	1.4%	60%
AA 3323 American Flight history →	LGA 19:59	DFW 23:05	26%	10%	1.4%	67%
DL 352 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:55	DFW 22:02	27%	12%	1.0%	55%
WN 4650 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:00	DAL 22:50	30%	10%	1.2%	50%
AA 1810 American Flight history →	EWR 17:10	DFW 20:10	30%	13%	1.3%	47%
UA 2856 United Flight history →	EWR 18:50	DFW 21:44	32%	12%	0.8%	74%
AA 1571 American Flight history →	LGA 18:47	DFW 21:50	32%	11%	1.4%	58%
AA 2388 American Flight history →	LGA 18:00	DFW 21:00	34%	11%	1.4%	46%
F9 3423 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 22:55	DFW 01:34	37%	14%	2.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON