Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 492 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 492 EWR 06:00 → IAH 08:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 281 JFK 14:29 → IAH 17:19 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 492 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAH 08:41	7%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 2438 United Flight history →	EWR 07:05	IAH 09:50	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 06:00	IAH 08:44	8%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 332 United Flight history →	EWR 07:59	IAH 10:44	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 2204 United Flight history →	EWR 12:36	IAH 15:34	11%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 4572 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 08:30	HOU 11:15	11%	3%	1.5%	81%
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 1957 United Flight history →	LGA 07:29	IAH 10:13	13%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 556 United Flight history →	EWR 10:53	IAH 13:38	14%	4%	0.6%	77%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	15%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 692 United Flight history →	LGA 12:31	IAH 15:22	16%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 2690 United Flight history →	EWR 14:12	IAH 17:10	16%	7%	0.6%	81%
WN 1711 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:30	HOU 13:20	16%	4%	2.0%	87%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	19%	7%	0.6%	62%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	19%	6%	0.6%	64%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	19%	7%	0.8%	73%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	LGA 20:17	IAH 23:15	19%	8%	0.7%	69%
UA 2815 United Flight history →	EWR 15:40	IAH 18:46	20%	9%	0.6%	69%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	20%	4%	0.8%	76%
UA 2782 United Flight history →	EWR 17:54	IAH 20:55	21%	10%	0.6%	69%
UA 265 United Flight history →	EWR 19:45	IAH 22:38	21%	8%	0.6%	72%
B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:15	IAH 11:00	22%	6%	0.8%	66%
UA 1066 United Flight history →	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:52	23%	10%	0.6%	50%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	23%	11%	0.8%	65%
WN 4861 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 13:40	HOU 16:30	23%	7%	1.7%	54%
UA 2425 United Flight history →	EWR 20:50	IAH 23:43	24%	7%	0.6%	75%
WN 2460 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 17:40	HOU 20:55	28%	15%	1.1%	62%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	35%	12%	0.8%	51%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468	59m New Orleans	MSY 15:43 → IAH 17:02UA 313	5h 29m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON