tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 51 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 171 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 2073 EWR 20:59 → LAX 23:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 171 American Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 09:01 7% 2% 1.1% 89%
UA 2423 United Flight history → EWR 06:42 SNA 09:35 8% 2% 0.7% 94%
AA 33 American Flight history → JFK 07:05 LAX 10:07 9% 3% 1.0% 90%
UA 2434 United Flight history → EWR 06:00 LAX 08:53 10% 2% 0.7% 79%
AA 1 American Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:58 11% 3% 1.0% 87%
DL 742 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 LAX 09:49 11% 3% 0.7% 78%
AA 3 American Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:58 11% 3% 0.9% 85%
DL 713 Delta Flight history → JFK 08:00 LAX 10:58 11% 3% 0.7% 78%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:00 LAX 08:49 11% 2% 0.9% 88%
AA 2683 American Flight history → JFK 08:00 SNA 10:58 11% 3% 0.7% 86%
DL 773 Delta Flight history → JFK 09:00 LAX 11:54 12% 3% 0.7% 81%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 12% 3% 0.8% 84%
DL 767 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 13:49 12% 3% 0.7% 86%
B6 1123 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 11:00 LAX 14:05 13% 4% 0.8% 79%
DL 747 Delta Flight history → JFK 13:50 LAX 16:47 13% 4% 0.7% 81%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:38 LAX 12:45 13% 4% 0.8% 83%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 08:30 LAX 11:25 14% 4% 0.9% 81%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 07:30 LAX 10:25 15% 4% 0.8% 83%
AA 255 American Flight history → JFK 14:40 LAX 17:48 15% 4% 0.8% 81%
UA 2445 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:37 15% 3% 0.7% 81%
AA 341 American Flight history → JFK 15:40 LAX 18:48 15% 5% 0.9% 77%
UA 212 United Flight history → EWR 12:00 LAX 14:38 16% 6% 0.7% 78%
UA 2679 United Flight history → EWR 10:45 LAX 13:41 16% 4% 0.7% 78%
UA 2692 United Flight history → EWR 09:15 LAX 11:53 16% 4% 0.7% 69%
UA 1350 United Flight history → EWR 14:29 SNA 17:18 17% 7% 0.6% 79%
DL 738 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:20 LAX 18:24 17% 5% 0.7% 77%
DL 353 Delta Flight history → JFK 16:20 LAX 19:28 17% 5% 0.7% 72%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 07:00 LAX 09:49 18% 4% 0.8% 76%
UA 2191 United Flight history → EWR 14:15 LAX 17:13 18% 7% 0.7% 78%
UA 1690 United Flight history → EWR 17:00 SNA 20:06 18% 6% 0.7% 87%
AA 306 American Flight history → JFK 17:00 LAX 20:19 18% 5% 0.9% 83%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 13:00 LAX 15:58 19% 6% 0.8% 72%
AA 117 American Flight history → JFK 20:00 LAX 23:24 20% 6% 0.8% 74%
DL 771 Delta Flight history → JFK 17:20 LAX 20:36 21% 5% 0.7% 78%
AA 302 American Flight history → JFK 18:10 LAX 21:28 21% 5% 0.8% 76%
AA 300 American Flight history → JFK 21:30 LAX 00:54 22% 6% 0.9% 73%
DL 707 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:00 LAX 22:19 22% 6% 0.7% 75%
UA 2238 United Flight history → EWR 16:00 LAX 18:42 23% 8% 0.7% 70%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 15:15 LAX 18:16 23% 7% 0.8% 71%
DL 752 Delta Flight history → JFK 20:20 LAX 23:38 24% 6% 0.7% 73%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 16:16 LAX 19:20 25% 7% 0.8% 73%
B6 358 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:17 BUR 20:35 25% 10% 1.6% 71%
B6 355 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:30 ONT 22:36 26% 9% 0.8% 62%
UA 2641 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 LAX 20:40 26% 9% 0.7% 72%
B6 823 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:50 LAX 21:02 30% 9% 0.8% 63%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:35 LAX 22:49 32% 11% 0.9% 54%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history → EWR 19:29 LAX 22:40 32% 9% 0.8% 74%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 21:40 LAX 00:51 33% 12% 0.9% 58%
UA 712 United Flight history → EWR 20:10 LAX 23:15 34% 10% 0.7% 59%
UA 353 United Flight history → EWR 18:45 LAX 21:36 34% 9% 0.7% 68%
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:59 LAX 23:57 42% 13% 0.8% 68%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
AmericanDetails → LGA 06:00 → DCA 07:20AA 4612 · flown by Republic 1h 20m Washington DCA 08:40 → LAX 11:19AA 1966 8h 19m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 8h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 1h 27m Minneapolis MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102 8h 10m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON