Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 36 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	6%	2%	12.9%	96%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 05:30	MCO 08:14	7%	3%	12.0%	75%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	7%	2%	10.8%	84%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	10.3%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	9%	3%	10.4%	89%
AA 3114 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCO 10:22	10%	3%	10.0%	86%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	MCO 09:49	11%	4%	10.4%	75%
UA 2719 United Flight history →	EWR 07:47	MCO 10:34	11%	4%	15.6%	88%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	13%	3%	15.6%	78%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	14%	5%	16.7%	76%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	15%	4%	16.6%	81%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	16%	7%	17.7%	87%
B6 383 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:55	MCO 14:03	16%	8%	16.8%	71%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	16%	5%	16.1%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	17%	7%	15.2%	65%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:21	MCO 15:17	21%	10%	17.8%	69%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	22%	7%	15.7%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 14:05	MCO 17:03	22%	9%	16.8%	81%
F9 2511 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 11:30	MCO 14:26	22%	10%	17.9%	80%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	24%	8%	15.8%	67%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	24%	13%	17.4%	77%
UA 1213 United Flight history →	EWR 15:05	MCO 18:03	24%	12%	17.3%	74%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	25%	10%	15.9%	62%
AA 2069 American Flight history →	LGA 14:57	MCO 17:52	27%	11%	17.6%	48%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	28%	11%	17.3%	73%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:56	MCO 20:05	28%	14%	17.1%	60%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	30%	13%	16.1%	59%
UA 1932 United Flight history →	EWR 18:37	MCO 21:38	31%	15%	17.4%	56%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	31%	11%	15.9%	68%
B6 1083 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:00	MCO 00:07	31%	15%	17.1%	67%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:00	MCO 22:10	31%	16%	17.7%	62%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	33%	14%	16.0%	61%
B6 2583 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:00	MCO 23:08	37%	16%	17.2%	55%
F9 2615 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	MCO 23:32	41%	20%	18.2%	58%
B6 1727 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 18:45	MCO 21:42	43%	21%	17.4%	64%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	46%	21%	17.3%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON