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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 87 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1249 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–48%.

Safest bet that day AA 1249 LGA 06:00 → MIA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

AA 1249 American Flight history → LGA 06:00 MIA 09:15 6% 2% 1.7% 94%
AA 655 American Flight history → JFK 05:55 MIA 09:12 7% 2% 1.5% 95%
UA 1771 United Flight history → EWR 06:55 PBI 09:55 7% 3% 1.1% 93%
AA 1196 American Flight history → EWR 05:31 MIA 08:45 8% 2% 1.6% 95%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:00 FLL 10:07 9% 2% 1.2% 88%
B6 1071 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 06:00 FLL 09:00 9% 3% 1.7% 88%
UA 1364 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 FLL 10:05 10% 3% 1.1% 92%
DL 2018 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:16 PBI 10:20 10% 3% 2.0% 89%
B6 1 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 05:50 FLL 08:50 10% 4% 1.8% 85%
B6 953 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:30 PBI 09:28 10% 3% 1.4% 90%
B6 1505 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 06:00 FLL 09:00 10% 4% 1.5% 82%
DL 1528 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:05 MIA 10:24 10% 3% 1.4% 86%
AA 1530 American Flight history → LGA 07:00 MIA 10:15 10% 3% 2.0% 88%
DL 2347 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:10 MIA 10:19 11% 4% 1.8% 89%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:20 FLL 10:22 11% 3% 1.4% 81%
DL 2536 Delta Flight history → LGA 07:00 PBI 09:49 11% 4% 1.9% 90%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 06:50 FLL 09:58 12% 4% 1.9% 87%
AA 2490 American Flight history → LGA 07:57 FLL 11:08 12% 4% 1.5% 80%
AA 970 American Flight history → LGA 07:59 MIA 11:14 13% 3% 1.8% 86%
UA 2785 United Flight history → EWR 07:00 MIA 10:02 13% 3% 1.2% 97%worse than usual
AA 2017 American Flight history → JFK 07:30 MIA 10:45 14% 3% 1.5% 85%
B6 1461 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:15 PBI 10:10 14% 4% 1.7% 88%
AA 1152 American Flight history → EWR 08:00 MIA 11:10 15% 4% 1.6% 93%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 07:30 FLL 10:35 16% 5% 1.7% 82%
DL 305 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:14 FLL 14:24 16% 4% 1.2% 80%
UA 2444 United Flight history → EWR 08:35 FLL 11:40 16% 4% 1.0% 81%
UA 2018 United Flight history → EWR 09:06 PBI 12:06 17% 5% 1.1% 92%
UA 677 United Flight history → EWR 11:37 FLL 14:42 18% 7% 1.0% 84%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history → LGA 10:55 FLL 13:54 19% 5% 1.2% 75%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:40 PBI 14:48 20% 5% 5.5% 83%
UA 651 United Flight history → EWR 13:05 FLL 16:15 20% 7% 1.0% 81%
B6 105 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 08:00 FLL 11:04 20% 6% 1.4% 72%
AA 3211 American Flight history → LGA 09:28 MIA 12:45 20% 4% 3.0% 76%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:30 FLL 18:54 21% 7% 1.5% 75%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:20 PBI 14:15 23% 8% 4.0% 73%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:10 MIA 18:53 25% 9% 1.7% 72%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:55 MIA 23:37 25% 10% 1.8% 70%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history → JFK 11:08 MIA 14:22 25% 5% 2.1% 78%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history → JFK 19:58 FLL 23:28 25% 9% 4.1% 68%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 09:30 FLL 12:47 26% 8% 1.7% 65%
B6 2143 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 10:30 PBI 13:23 26% 8% 1.8% 73%
AA 2945 American Flight history → LGA 11:00 MIA 14:11 26% 6% 2.9% 78%
UA 1797 United Flight history → EWR 13:07 PBI 16:09 26% 10% 2.4% 75%
DL 1638 Delta Flight history → JFK 15:45 PBI 19:04 26% 10% 3.8% 74%
AA 525 American Flight history → JFK 11:45 MIA 14:50 27% 6% 2.2% 73%
AA 2026 American Flight history → JFK 21:00 MIA 00:21 27% 10% 2.0% 59%
AA 1174 American Flight history → JFK 18:50 MIA 22:22 27% 9% 1.8% 74%
AA 683 American Flight history → JFK 13:59 MIA 17:16 27% 8% 1.6% 74%
UA 2295 United Flight history → EWR 11:31 MIA 14:38 27% 8% 1.6% 81%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history → LGA 11:15 MIA 14:24 28% 6% 2.2% 77%
AA 3017 American Flight history → LGA 15:30 MIA 19:06 28% 12% 2.3% 72%
AA 2981 American Flight history → EWR 12:25 MIA 15:38 28% 10% 1.8% 55%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 12:00 FLL 15:03 28% 11% 1.5% 61%
AA 1643 American Flight history → LGA 13:00 MIA 16:14 28% 9% 2.3% 67%
AA 1479 American Flight history → JFK 16:00 MIA 19:26 28% 9% 1.7% 68%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 FLL 22:52 29% 13% 4.5% 66%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history → LGA 14:59 MIA 18:30 29% 12% 1.9% 63%
AA 688 American Flight history → JFK 17:25 MIA 20:59 30% 9% 2.1% 76%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 12:00 FLL 15:10 30% 10% 1.8% 68%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history → LGA 16:30 FLL 19:56 30% 13% 2.2% 66%
UA 1511 United Flight history → EWR 13:00 MIA 16:16 31% 11% 1.3% 68%
DL 2382 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:55 MIA 23:22 31% 15% 2.2% 59%
UA 2650 United Flight history → EWR 20:19 PBI 23:28 32% 13% 1.3% 74%
AA 3196 American Flight history → LGA 15:55 FLL 19:10 32% 11% 2.1% 50%
UA 1907 United Flight history → EWR 17:30 FLL 20:48 32% 12% 3.8% 82%worse than usual
DL 2410 Delta Flight history → LGA 19:29 PBI 22:46 32% 15% 2.4% 63%
DL 2460 Delta Flight history → LGA 15:10 PBI 18:32 33% 14% 3.8% 65%
AA 605 American Flight history → LGA 16:55 MIA 20:22 33% 15% 2.8% 68%
AA 1576 American Flight history → LGA 19:29 MIA 22:48 33% 14% 2.1% 50%
B6 1501 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 17:43 FLL 21:04 33% 14% 5.7% 64%
UA 1897 United Flight history → EWR 20:44 FLL 23:59 33% 11% 2.3% 65%
UA 2659 United Flight history → EWR 15:25 PBI 18:27 34% 13% 3.3% 75%
UA 2213 United Flight history → EWR 15:59 MIA 19:25 34% 14% 1.3% 62%
UA 1128 United Flight history → EWR 20:08 MIA 23:26 34% 14% 1.5% 73%
AA 716 American Flight history → LGA 18:24 MIA 21:48 35% 14% 2.6% 48%
AA 3119 American Flight history → EWR 18:30 MIA 21:55 36% 16% 2.7% 75%worse than usual
DL 1620 Delta Flight history → LGA 17:50 MIA 21:21 38% 15% 2.3% 58%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 15:40 FLL 18:53 38% 15% 1.9% 61%
B6 143 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 13:59 PBI 16:54 38% 17% 5.2% 76%worse than usual
B6 1053 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 19:00 PBI 22:15 38% 17% 3.2% 64%
B6 53 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 13:29 PBI 16:30 39% 14% 5.7% 73%worse than usual
B6 1701 JetBlue Flight history → JFK 20:00 FLL 23:23 40% 18% 5.6% 53%
B6 685 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 15:28 FLL 18:30 40% 17% 2.3% 42%
B6 1171 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 16:29 FLL 19:43 41% 19% 3.6% 62%
B6 305 JetBlue Flight history → EWR 20:46 FLL 23:55 45% 20% 4.8% 71%worse than usual
B6 1761 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 18:00 PBI 21:05 45% 20% 3.4% 58%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history → LGA 20:50 FLL 23:59 48% 19% 5.0% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON