Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 43 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 3656 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 3656 LGA 06:05 → IAD 07:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3656 United flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	IAD 07:31	4%	2%	0.9%	93%
UA 1366 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	IAD 07:22	4%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 4612 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:00	DCA 07:20	5%	2%	0.9%	88%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DCA 07:23	5%	2%	0.9%	89%
AA 4538 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:30	DCA 07:59	6%	2%	0.8%	81%
DL 5835 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 10:14	IAD 11:49	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 5750 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:35	DCA 10:09	8%	2%	0.8%	92%
AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:43	DCA 09:13	9%	2%	0.9%	83%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:50	DCA 10:15	10%	2%	0.8%	83%
AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:30	DCA 10:59	10%	3%	0.8%	67%
AA 4393 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:03	DCA 10:32	10%	2%	0.8%	84%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:47	DCA 12:17	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
UA 1691 United Flight history →	EWR 10:05	IAD 11:28	14%	5%	0.7%	72%
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:20	DCA 12:42	16%	4%	0.9%	78%
AA 4336 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:00	DCA 23:31	17%	4%	1.1%	76%
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 13:28	DCA 14:56	18%	5%	0.9%	43%
UA 3688 United flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:51	IAD 16:35	20%	8%	1.0%	63%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	21%	7%	1.1%	68%
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:20	DCA 16:59	22%	6%	0.9%	60%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:40	DCA 16:19	22%	6%	1.1%	61%
UA 1784 United Flight history →	EWR 21:50	IAD 23:19	23%	9%	0.8%	79%
UA 1992 United Flight history →	EWR 15:08	IAD 16:32	24%	10%	0.7%	68%
UA 2717 United	EWR 22:30	IAD 23:55	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 15:09	DCA 16:46	24%	6%	1.1%	52%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:15	DCA 20:59	25%	10%	1.3%	50%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:15	DCA 18:59	25%	9%	1.1%	62%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:50	DCA 21:26	26%	10%	1.3%	64%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:20	DCA 18:58	26%	8%	1.1%	76%
UA 2677 United Flight history →	EWR 19:29	IAD 21:00	30%	13%	0.8%	65%
DL 1825 Delta Flight history →	LGA 21:20	DCA 22:58	31%	11%	0.9%	47%
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	43%	15%	1.1%	53%
UA 4437 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 06:30	DCA 07:46	16%	10%	3.1%	84%
UA 6242 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:29	IAD 11:55	18%	7%	4.3%	82%
UA 4446 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 08:09	DCA 09:32	20%	14%	5.4%	80%
UA 4444 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:00	DCA 10:23	23%	7%	2.4%	77%
UA 4172 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 11:00	DCA 12:23	28%	13%	3.7%	72%
UA 4472 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:00	DCA 14:23	29%	6%	13.9%	71%
UA 6244 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 19:28	IAD 20:55	31%	22%	14.7%	69%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 16:40	IAD 18:32	38%	21%	12.7%	62%
UA 4433 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:00	DCA 15:23	40%	24%	4.3%	60%
UA 4432 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 18:10	DCA 19:48	43%	22%	9.6%	57%
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 20:20	DCA 21:53	55%	25%	9.5%	45%
UA 4486 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 15:30	DCA 16:57	58%	23%	4.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON