Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3034 at 05:30, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3034 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:30	AUS 10:55	6%	1%	0.6%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744	5h 40m	97%	86%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:40 → AUS 12:25WN 1864	5h 25m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:05 → BUR 08:20WN 3035	2h 40m Burbank	BUR 11:00 → AUS 16:00WN 771	6h 55m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m Portland	PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370	9h 48m	100%	80%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	2h 05m Denver	DEN 11:20 → AUS 14:30WN 4610	6h 45m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	1h 00m Denver	DEN 12:40 → AUS 15:50WN 1476	5h 35m	100%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:30 → LGB 08:55WN 264	3h 40m Long Beach	LGB 12:35 → AUS 17:30WN 2476	8h 00m	98%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	1h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 19:25 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 3569	5h 25m	70%	41%
Southwest Details →	OAK 14:30 → LAS 16:05WN 577	50m Las Vegas	LAS 16:55 → AUS 21:45WN 2184	5h 15m	44%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON