Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 803 at 13:30, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 803 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:30	BOI 16:00	21%	3%	0.5%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → BOI 12:49AS 2089 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m	96%	92%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:22 → SEA 12:26AS 705	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon	6h 49m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → BOI 12:14DL 1442	5h 14m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 08:35 → BOI 11:25WN 2192	5h 25m	97%	88%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 40m Phoenix	PHX 08:40 → BOI 11:45WN 4601	5h 40m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111	6h 00m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	1h 14m Portland	PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342	4h 15m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:25 → SAN 20:00WN 3077	1h 05m San Diego	SAN 21:05 → BOI 00:25 +1WN 644	5h 00m	58%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON