Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3035 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3035 OAK 07:05 → BUR 08:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4865 OAK 20:25 → BUR 21:40 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3035 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 07:05	BUR 08:20	4%	1%	1.2%	91%
WN 3036 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:15	BUR 10:25	7%	2%	1.1%	95%
WN 1268 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:05	BUR 12:15	16%	4%	1.2%	69%
WN 3037 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:00	BUR 14:10	24%	5%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
WN 3563 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:30	BUR 16:40	25%	8%	1.0%	65%
WN 4977 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:00	BUR 18:10	26%	10%	1.0%	65%
WN 263 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:00	BUR 20:15	32%	10%	0.9%	65%
WN 4865 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:25	BUR 21:40	36%	13%	1.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON