Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:27 → BWI 06:00 +1DL 2079	9h 55m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	3h 15m Chicago	MDW 14:30 → BWI 17:25WN 1020	9h 15m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → BWI 16:55WN 1039	8h 50m	97%	75%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	2h 30m Denver	DEN 11:45 → BWI 17:15WN 4434	8h 30m	100%	74%
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:00 → ONT 20:20WN 271	1h 20m Ontario	ONT 21:40 → BWI 05:30 +1WN 3143	7h 30m	88%	72%
Southwest Details →	OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55WN 3073	3h 20m San Diego	SAN 11:15 → BWI 19:20WN 3390	10h 00m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	2h 55m Denver	DEN 14:35 → BWI 20:00WN 1045	8h 45m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20WN 4539	3h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → BWI 05:45 +1WN 1069	10h 00m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	55m Houston	HOU 20:35 → BWI 00:40 +1WN 1961	7h 45m	65%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON