Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3014 at 11:00, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:00	DAL 16:25	23%	4%	0.6%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	1h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 07:50 → DAL 12:40WN 1317	5h 40m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 00m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	5h 20m	97%	87%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 25m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	2h 25m Denver	DEN 11:40 → DAL 14:45WN 2354	7h 00m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 09:15 → BUR 10:25WN 3036	1h 20m Burbank	BUR 11:45 → DAL 16:50WN 2921	5h 35m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:35 → LAS 09:05WN 4348	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 10:50 → DAL 15:40WN 2218	6h 05m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	1h 15m Austin	AUS 12:10 → DAL 13:15WN 910	5h 45m	96%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 10:05 → PHX 12:00WN 4766	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 13:25 → DAL 17:50WN 3256	5h 45m	95%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	50m Houston	HOU 20:30 → DAL 21:40WN 54	5h 45m	63%	45%
Southwest Details →	OAK 15:45 → SAN 17:20WN 1926	50m San Diego	SAN 18:10 → DAL 23:15WN 3492	5h 30m	51%	32%
Southwest Details →	OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205	50m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → DAL 19:25WN 4489	5h 10m	43%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON