Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	1h 30m Chicago	MDW 12:45 → DCA 15:35WN 2761	7h 25m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 35m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	1h 30m Austin	AUS 12:25 → DCA 16:40WN 281	8h 10m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 40m Las Vegas	LAS 09:10 → DCA 16:45WN 1241	8h 45m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:22 → SEA 12:26AS 705	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2	8h 37m	90%	59%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	2h 25m Dallas	DAL 18:50 → DCA 22:45WN 1295	8h 45m	97%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON