Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3041 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3041 OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 3044 OAK 14:55 → DEN 18:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3041 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:45	DEN 09:15	6%	1%	0.5%	84%
WN 3042 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 08:15	DEN 11:40	11%	2%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
WN 2418 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:40	DEN 23:10	31%	8%	0.6%	67%
WN 3043 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:25	DEN 16:50	34%	6%	0.5%	39%
WN 3044 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:55	DEN 18:20	37%	8%	0.5%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON