Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Portland, leaving 17:35, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 17:35 → PDX 19:12AS 2304 · flown by Horizon	2h 19m Portland	PDX 21:31 → EWR 05:59 +1AS 1631	9h 24m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	9h 55m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033	7h 49m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:22 → SEA 12:26AS 705	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 15:38 → EWR 23:59AS 263	10h 37m	99%	67%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 10:05 → EWR 18:29AS 477	9h 07m	97%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON