Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745	8h 28m	98%	75%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	3h 15m Denver	DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50WN 4222	9h 35m	100%	61%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	2h 55m Dallas	DAL 19:20 → FLL 23:10WN 46	9h 10m	97%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	1h 00m Houston	HOU 20:40 → FLL 00:10 +1WN 4825	7h 15m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON