Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 804 at 15:00, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 804 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 15:00	GEG 16:55	22%	5%	0.5%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Spokane on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 09:55 → GEG 11:00AS 2200 · flown by Horizon	4h 38m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	OAK 17:35 → PDX 19:12AS 2304 · flown by Horizon	2h 38m Portland	PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356	5h 24m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Portland	PDX 17:30 → GEG 18:44AS 3052 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → GEG 12:12DL 1452	6h 12m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → GEG 11:40WN 2306	6h 40m	100%	84%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon	1h 01m Portland	PDX 10:30 → GEG 11:45AS 250	3h 53m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:15 → GEG 23:55DL 1466	6h 50m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:30 → GEG 18:13DL 1024	5h 43m	99%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	46m Portland	PDX 14:30 → GEG 15:41AS 3262 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m	67%	58%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	51m Seattle	SEA 17:51 → GEG 19:00AS 1433	4h 05m	48%	31%
Alaska Details →	OAK 19:13 → PDX 20:50AS 2096 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 21:50 → GEG 22:59AS 1356	3h 46m	32%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON