Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Kahului, leaving 13:55, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 847 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 08:25	HNL 10:59	17%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 2879 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:25	HNL 13:45	21%	5%	0.6%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → OGG 16:10WN 3060	2h 50m Kahului	OGG 19:00 → HNL 19:45WN 3098	8h 50m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 08:15 → HNL 11:35WN 2238	9h 35m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 19m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:45 → LIH 16:10WN 3058	3h 00m Lihue	LIH 19:10 → HNL 19:50WN 664	9h 05m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	2h 30m Phoenix	PHX 09:30 → HNL 12:55WN 3274	10h 50m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:35 → LAS 09:05WN 4348	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 10:20 → HNL 13:40WN 2240	9h 05m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 10m Kahului	OGG 11:27 → HNL 12:09AS 1105	8h 09m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 12:01 → PDX 13:44AS 3045 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Portland	PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841	11h 23m	100%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	49m Kahului	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	6h 48m	67%	51%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:26AS 3311 · flown by SkyWest	50m San Diego	SAN 17:16 → HNL 20:22AS 894	8h 32m	46%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON