Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:05, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 0% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4244 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:55	HOU 19:40	32%	8%	0.7%	31%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	1h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → HOU 12:55WN 981	5h 55m	97%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 08:05 → HOU 12:40WN 2833	5h 35m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	OAK 06:00 → ONT 07:25WN 4421	2h 15m Ontario	ONT 09:40 → HOU 14:50WN 4868	6h 50m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	1h 00m Denver	DEN 10:15 → HOU 13:55WN 1543	6h 10m	94%	78%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	3h 45m Chicago	MDW 15:00 → HOU 17:35WN 1124	10h 25m	100%	78%
Southwest Details →	OAK 07:35 → LAS 09:05WN 4348	2h 20m Las Vegas	LAS 11:25 → HOU 16:35WN 4724	7h 00m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:25 → DEN 16:50WN 3043	3h 35m Denver	DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026	8h 30m	100%	71%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	1h 50m Austin	AUS 12:45 → HOU 13:45WN 4392	6h 15m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	50m Denver	DEN 12:30 → HOU 16:05WN 1544	5h 50m	0%	0%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON