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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest 1h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 7h 47m 97% 83%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 07:52 → PDX 09:29AS 2298 · flown by Horizon 1h 18m Portland PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18 8h 31m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → OAK 12:30 → SLC 15:22DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 8h 17m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491 1h 03m Seattle SEA 09:29 → JFK 17:55AS 34 8h 33m 88% 64%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 10:37 → SAN 12:13AS 3313 · flown by SkyWest 2h 02m San Diego SAN 14:15 → JFK 22:56AS 36 9h 19m 96% 63%
AlaskaDetails → OAK 10:22 → SEA 12:26AS 705 1h 36m Seattle SEA 14:02 → JFK 22:29AS 16 9h 07m 93% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON