Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2325 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2325 OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4539 OAK 16:45 → LAS 18:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2325 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:00	LAS 06:30	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 4348 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 07:35	LAS 09:05	6%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 2374 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:00	LAS 10:30	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 5053 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:20	LAS 11:50	17%	4%	0.7%	85%
WN 2205 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 12:15	LAS 13:50	28%	6%	0.7%	67%
WN 369 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 22:10	LAS 23:50	32%	11%	0.7%	72%
WN 5051 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:15	LAS 21:55	33%	13%	0.7%	32%
WN 4503 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 21:05	LAS 22:40	34%	13%	0.7%	42%
WN 577 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:30	LAS 16:05	35%	13%	0.7%	54%
WN 4693 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 18:10	LAS 19:45	37%	16%	0.7%	54%
WN 4539 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:45	LAS 18:20	37%	15%	0.7%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON