Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2419 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 2419 OAK 06:50 → LAX 08:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest WN 2396 OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2419 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 06:50	LAX 08:15	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
WN 4903 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 09:15	LAX 10:40	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
WN 4978 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:20	LAX 14:45	26%	8%	0.6%	76%
WN 4229 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 17:30	LAX 18:55	31%	13%	0.6%	72%
WN 3053 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:00	LAX 17:25	32%	12%	0.6%	55%
WN 2396 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:45	LAX 21:10	39%	14%	0.6%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON