Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 12:55 → LGA 16:00WN 2803	7h 50m	100%	70%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	2h 00m Denver	DEN 11:15 → LGA 16:55WN 4441	8h 10m	100%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	3h 25m Denver	DEN 15:05 → LGA 20:50WN 4233	9h 35m	100%	51%
Southwest Details →	OAK 11:00 → DAL 16:25WN 3014	1h 35m Dallas	DAL 18:00 → LGA 22:25WN 4852	8h 25m	87%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON