Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 264 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 264 OAK 07:30 → LGB 08:55 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 3057 OAK 19:20 → LGB 20:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 264 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 07:30	LGB 08:55	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 1328 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:30	LGB 11:55	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 2951 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 14:30	LGB 15:55	20%	6%	0.6%	73%
WN 3057 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 19:20	LGB 20:50	23%	6%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON