Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AS 967 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 967 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 07:50	LIH 10:16	9%	2%	1.0%	91%
WN 3058 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:45	LIH 16:10	27%	4%	0.6%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879	3h 35m Honolulu	HNL 17:20 → LIH 18:05WN 2349	9h 40m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 09:25 → LIH 12:45WN 2262	10h 45m	100%	83%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 59m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:22 → SEA 08:26AS 491	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 18m	100%	68%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	3h 56m Honolulu	HNL 14:55 → LIH 15:38AS 1093	10h 13m	99%	68%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 18:13 → LIH 21:25AS 237	9h 30m	77%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON