Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 43% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	9h 55m	100%	72%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:10 → MDW 11:15WN 2744	2h 25m Chicago	MDW 13:40 → MCO 17:30WN 2819	9h 20m	100%	67%
Southwest Details →	OAK 18:10 → LAS 19:45WN 4693	3h 05m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	9h 15m	98%	64%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:55 → MCO 15:15WN 1817	7h 10m	92%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:25 → DEN 16:50WN 3043	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:45 → MCO 01:40 +1WN 1596	9h 15m	100%	62%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024	9h 01m	99%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:30 → LAX 18:55WN 4229	3h 10m Los Angeles	LAX 22:05 → MCO 06:00 +1WN 2409	9h 30m	96%	62%
Southwest Details →	OAK 08:15 → DEN 11:40WN 3042	2h 30m Denver	DEN 14:10 → MCO 20:05WN 1495	8h 50m	100%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	OAK 20:15 → LAS 21:55WN 5051	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:50 → MCO 06:25 +1WN 4590	7h 10m	67%	44%
Southwest Details →	OAK 19:45 → LAX 21:10WN 2396	55m Los Angeles	LAX 22:05 → MCO 06:00 +1WN 2409	7h 15m	55%	36%
Southwest Details →	OAK 12:15 → LAS 13:50WN 2205	50m Las Vegas	LAS 14:40 → MCO 22:25WN 1225	7h 10m	43%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON