Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:05, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 17:05 → SLC 19:57DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	9h 35m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:30 → AUS 10:55WN 3034	55m Austin	AUS 11:50 → MIA 15:40WN 362	7h 10m	90%	66%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:45 → DEN 09:15WN 3041	2h 55m Denver	DEN 12:10 → MIA 18:10WN 1624	9h 25m	100%	64%
Southwest Details →	OAK 13:55 → HOU 19:40WN 4244	1h 20m Houston	HOU 21:00 → MIA 00:30 +1WN 4859	7h 35m	86%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON