Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 923 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 07:00	OGG 09:17	8%	3%	0.7%	97%
WN 3060 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:55	OGG 16:10	25%	6%	0.6%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 11:25 → HNL 13:45WN 2879	3h 40m Honolulu	HNL 17:25 → OGG 18:10WN 1933	9h 45m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:00 → LAS 06:30WN 2325	2h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 09:20 → OGG 12:35WN 1457	10h 35m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:00 → SLC 08:55DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	99%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00WN 3066	2h 20m Phoenix	PHX 09:20 → OGG 12:40WN 2138	10h 35m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	OAK 06:20 → SAN 07:55WN 3073	2h 30m San Diego	SAN 10:25 → OGG 13:15WN 2618	9h 55m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:50 → SAN 16:26AS 3311 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m San Diego	SAN 18:55 → OGG 21:55AS 483	10h 05m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	3h 25m Honolulu	HNL 14:24 → OGG 15:08AS 1126	9h 43m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	OAK 14:55 → SEA 17:00AS 1464	1h 59m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202	10h 12m	91%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON