Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 471 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 471 OAK 05:00 → PDX 06:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 4368 OAK 20:30 → PDX 22:05 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 29% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 471 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:00	PDX 06:40	4%	1%	0.5%	100%
AS 3045 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OAK 12:01	PDX 13:44	10%	5%	0.6%	98%
WN 1577 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 13:05	PDX 14:40	27%	5%	0.5%	58%
WN 4368 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:30	PDX 22:05	34%	9%	0.6%	29%
AS 2298 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 07:52	PDX 09:29	4%	2%	0.0%	96%
AS 2304 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 17:35	PDX 19:12	5%	0%	0.0%	95%
AS 2096 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	OAK 19:13	PDX 20:50	68%	18%	6.7%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON