Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3066 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3066 OAK 05:05 → PHX 07:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3070 OAK 20:40 → PHX 22:45 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3066 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 05:05	PHX 07:00	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
WN 4766 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 10:05	PHX 12:00	16%	4%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
WN 878 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 16:45	PHX 18:45	33%	12%	0.6%	60%
WN 3070 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 20:40	PHX 22:45	37%	14%	0.7%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON